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Climate Change and Violent Conflict Part 1


Climate Change and Violent Conflict Part 1

In my previous blog posts, I have dealt with the direct consequences of climate change in South Africa, such as droughts and floods. In this blog post, I will look one step further and consider the climate change – conflict nexus. Where my previous posts were focused on South Africa, this blog post will be about a different region in Africa. The literature I use for this blogpost focusses on East Africa. Besides, for examples and a more narrow focus, I will in my next blogpost look at Sudan and South Sudan particularly. 

Although it is still fairly uncertain how much climate change will increase the risk of conflict, it is highly expected by researches that the risk of violent conflict will increase (Stanford, 2019). The availability or better said the unavailability of renewable resources is a common conflict driver. With climate change affecting the availability of renewable resources, it is important to consider the potential links between climate change and violent conflict. East Africa is a good case for researching the climate – conflict nexus because of its high risk of climate-related conflict because of multiple factors. The large history of violence in the region and high climate change risk together with high vulnerability to climate change because of poverty and limited adaptive capacities make the region at risk (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018). 

The climate Change – Violent Conflict Nexus
According to literature, there are four key explanations connecting climate change to violent conflict in East Africa. These are (1) the worsening livelihood conditions, (2) increased migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns, (3) tactical considerations by armed groups and (4) elite exploitation of local grievance (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018, p.551). These explanations are not contradictory, they often exist together or at different moments. 

Worsening livelihood conditions
Worsening livelihood conditions is a big possible reason for violent conflict. Households depending on renewable natural resources are particularly vulnerable. This is because climate change is expected to decrease the availability or quality of freshwater and have impacts on food security because of the degradation of grazing lands, damaged croplands, and dead livestock. In East Africa, a big part of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism, which will be highly impacted by climate change. It is expected that especially resulted loss of income for farmers and pastoralists together with other political/social pressures on livelihood can fuel violent conflict in which people try to secure resources (van Baalen & Mobjôrk,2018). However, the link to worsening livelihood conditions and violent conflict is largely affected by a widely amount of other factors such as a dependence on natural resources, adaptation capacity, government policies, and marginalization and therefore differs a lot between communities (van Baalen& Mobjôrk, 2018). Vulnerable places with a history of violence are more likely to be the site of new conflict. 

Migration 
Climate-related environmental change is almost always just one of the multiple factors that lead people to migrate. Moreover, a sudden disaster like a flood impacts migration differently, with immediate displacement, than slow-onset disasters. The more slow processes, such as increasing resource scarcity, push people towards areas with more resources available or different livelihood possibilities, such as urban areas (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018). In this way, climate change can increase urbanization processes. Also, pastoralists depending on seasonal mobility have to change routes because of the frequent unavailability of pasture and water. Migration can lead to conflict In multiple ways. Firstly, in-migration can place stress on the resources, increasing the risk of conflict. Secondly, when migrants with different ethnic backgrounds migrate to a place, this can lead to ethnic tension (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018). 

Tactical Considerations by armed groups
The influence of climate variability on tactical considerations by armed groups is central in this argument. The climate influences the tactical considerations in the mobility of forces and material and level of camouflage (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018). 

Elite Exploitation of Local Grievances
Elite exploitation of local grievances happens when organized elite groups fuel intergroup violence to effectively use them in civil wars or ethnic cleansing to for example crush political opponents (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018). This argument is particularly important because conflict as a result of climate change happens in a political world with social processes of human behavior. Conditions like elite exploitation set the scene for the extreme outcome of violent conflict. 

These four arguments help understand climate change – violent conflict nexus, yet it is important to realize that societies vulnerable to climate change might also make them vulnerable to violent conflict and the other way around, violent conflict makes communities more defenseless to climate change. 



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