Climate Change and
Violent Conflict Part 2 – South Sudan
Source: Reuters
Floodings in a country full of violent conflict history
Last week
the government of South Sudan declared a state of emergency as widespread
flooding has affected almost a million people according to the UN, causing immediate
displacement of hundreds of thousand people (United Nations, 2019; Anyadike,2019). Although flooding and heavy rainfall
is normal in South Sudan this time of year, the scope this year is, especially
in the Pibor region, unseen before (UNICEF, 2019; Anyadike, 2019; Newey, 2019).
With diseases like malaria and diarrhea already being a big problem in the area,
the floods limiting access to health care, will according to UNICEF(2019) have a big impact on the children in the area. Water sources are
contaminated and many homes are left underwater. On top of this, before the flooding
there already were high numbers of malnutrition in the region and this will
likely increase and even result in acute malnutrition among children. Lack of access to water,
sanitation and hygiene together with the mass displacement of people will also
potentially spread malaria, cholera, and diarrhea (UNICEF, 2019). A lot of
people already faced poverty and food insecurity in South Sudan, but the levels
of food security are expected to increase due to damaged crops and grazing land
drenched in water (UNICEF, 2019; Newey, 2019).
Flooding in South Sudan, with violet representing water
South Sudan
is a country with a big history of violent conflict. The past 12 months there has
been a ceasefire in the civil war that started in 2013. The country became independent
from north Sudan in 2011 after decades of war. The humanitarian gains made in
the last year of truce, such as aid agencies reaching previously inaccessible
parts of the country because of violent conflict, are likely to be threatened and
set back because of the floods (Anyadike, 2019). Violent conflict in South Sudan
is a conflict with many causes. Ethnic tension, oil resource management, weak
institutions, the chaos of liberation, and power struggles between politicians are the main
factors. The country being land-locked and food insecurity are other reasons
for conflict in the country. A big problem caused by the violent conflicts in
the country is the displacement of millions of people, resulting in a lot of
people facing hunger (GSDM, 2019). Although
the country has had humanitarian help in the last year, this new displacement
of hundreds of thousands of people on top of the problems already existing is likely
to cause a lot of new problems such as a huge hunger crisis (Newey, 2019). The
country, dealing with a big history of conflict, political instability,
mass displacement, and worsening livelihood conditions because of the floods
could, following the key explanations of the climate change – violent conflict
nexus (van Baalen & Mobjôrk, 2018), I think lead to new fueled violent
conflicts.
In the second
part of this blog post I will mention historical examples of the Climate Change –
Violent conflict nexus in the Sudan´s.
Livelihood conditions
Droughts in South Sudan and Sudan have in the
past forced herders to sell more of their livestock than normally. This induces
an oversupply on the market, reducing the prices on the market and causing economic
price shocks. According to Maystadt et al. (2015) situations such as these make
people more prone to both livestock raiding and joining armed groups.
Migration
Migration can, as mentioned in my previous
blogpost, induce conflict. In the Southern region of Sudan, decline in rainfall
has caused nomadic groups to find new trackpads and move southwards, migrating
to a new area which has resulted in conflicts with the local farmers (van Baalen & Mobjörk, 2018).
Elite exploitation
South Sudan and Sudan can also be used as a
case in how elite exploitation can be used in times of climate change (van Baalen & Mobjörk, 2018). The war between the two parts of Sudan began in
the early eighties. At that time, one country with a politically and ethnically
divided population suffered from a severe drought. Hardships between ethnic
groups and conflicts between communities about “land facilitated mobilization
of government and rebel forces” (van Baalen & Mobjörk, 2018, p.563) continued
to be a source of insecurity even after the independence of South Sudan. Entire
communities became part of civil wars as part of both vulnerability to
environmental change together with elite exploitation. Local resource conflicts
always go hand in hand with political, economic and cultural inequalities in
the countries and therefore always play a crucial role in water-related
violence in the countries (van Baalen & Mobjörk, 2018). A specific example
of this is given by Mohammed (2004). About the Rezaigat camel nomads. After
years of trading between the nomads and farmers, landowners stopped this after
droughts depleted their agricultural products. This, in turn, made the nomads increasingly
opposed to the landowners. This hostility than was exploited by the government,
recruiting them to fight against opposition groups in Southern Sudan. On top of
this, some of the Razaigat joined the disreputable Janjaweed militia, an organization
that committed a lot of crimes and acts of genocide against humanity in Darfur.
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